Curse

xarchitect · Jul 02, 2006, 12:32 AM // 00:32

I spent 13 rounds of 9 square logging the winning numbers. I always loved number puzzles, but this is way above me. Anyway, if someone can post an answer I will be truly impressed. There are 19 games per cycle. I am sure the prime number has something to do with it.

Key (standing to the left of the games podium looking south)
1 - 2 - 3
4 - 5 - 6
7 - 8 - 9
- - - - X

X = podium

Winning numbers:
round 1: 5 1 7 8 5 5 5 2 7 4 9 4 8 8 6 9 9 1 8
round 2: 8 4 5 6 1 4 8 6 2 2 8 6 9 4 7 3 1 2 4
round 3: 4 5 5 4 3 7 6 2 9 6 2 2 3 6 8 9 8 8 2
round 4: 9 8 4 3 4 6 8 9 3 7 9 7 3 8 5 5 8 1 8
round 5: 7 7 7 7 2 6 9 6 8 8 9 2 4 3 5 5 4 3 9
round 6: 5 7 1 9 4 4 7 2 1 9 4 9 7 2 6 1 7 1 6
round 7: 3 8 5 6 5 4 4 8 7 3 6 4 4 8 3 6 4 9 5
round 8: 1 4 4 4 8 4 5 3 2 5 8 2 7 2 6 9 1 9 1
round 9: 8 1 3 9 7 4 2 4 2 9 8 2 2 2 7 2 2 6 1
round 10: 3 4 8 8 3 1 7 2 7 5 7 7 2 9 3 1 1 5 2
round 11: 6 6 8 8 2 6 6 3 2 5 2 6 9 3 5 9 5 8 8
round 12: 3 4 4 1 6 4 6 8 9 1 6 7 5 8 1 1 6 8 6
round 13: 7 5 8 8 7 1 3 8 6 7 3 4 8 2 7 5 7 9 4
round 14: I gave up, there didn't seem to be a repeating pattern

Since other posts have essentially proven nobody could possibly max the title even if you won every game from the beginning of the festival, I didn't feel too bad about not finding a pattern.

There may also be a mathematical solution if the set-up is backwards. Maybe it should have been:

9 - 8 - 7
6 - 5 - 4
3 - 2 - 1
- - - - X

Anyway, good luck figuring something out.

The truth itself · Jul 02, 2006, 12:40 AM // 00:40

We already did, dont need your unprecise numbers.

When all calculating is done, the corners at the 9-ring are the best place to be.

It's the fastest at getting lucky
and
fastest at getting unlucky..

Now good un/luck.

Close topic.

TheLordOfBlah · Jul 02, 2006, 12:41 AM // 00:41

Im pretty sure it selects at random. If there was a pattern it would have been exploited already.

The Great Al · Jul 02, 2006, 12:44 AM // 00:44

The pattern is, I sure wish I was sitting on 7 for the first 4 games of that round 5

Juicey Shake · Jul 02, 2006, 12:46 AM // 00:46

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...&postcount=170

: (

xarchitect · Jul 02, 2006, 01:04 AM // 01:04

Quote:

We already did, dont need your unprecise numbers.

Actually, I was hoping to ditch your imprecise numers of "here is where you have the best odds". It is a computer program, so chances are there is a math formula to determine when it will hit a specific number. So I was posting some empirical data that someone with better math skills than I have can analyze the data. I was looking for a predictive formula, not odds.

And it seems from the screenshot that either someone figured out the formula or just bought a lot of tickets.

shadowfell · Jul 02, 2006, 01:10 AM // 01:10

He bought a lot of tickets

Juicey Shake · Jul 02, 2006, 01:10 AM // 01:10

yeah, possible trickery of lots of tickets + storage tricks hehe ^^ but if he did find a way, cool stuff, that's like 100k+ an hour @_@.

Doomlord_Slayermann · Jul 02, 2006, 01:10 AM // 01:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by xarchitect

Actually, I was hoping to ditch your imprecise numers of "here is where you have the best odds". It is a computer program, so chances are there is a math formula to determine when it will hit a specific number. So I was posting some empirical data that someone with better math skills than I have can analyze the data. I was looking for a predictive formula, not odds.

And it seems from the screenshot that either someone figured out the formula or just bought a lot of tickets.

All "random" selection in a computer is just pseudorandom, but it is very, very easy to make an algorithm that (1) is, for all intents and purposes, random and (2) is essentially impossible to predict without hacking something. Now, that said, it would take more than 5 days worth of wins/losses to gather enough data for a brute crack of the system, and we STILL wouldn't know for sure.

fRag_Doll · Jul 02, 2006, 01:32 AM // 01:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by xarchitect

I was looking for a predictive formula, not odds.

Isn't that somthing of an oxymoron? Any predictive formula for a random number generator would have to be based on probability (odds).

If anyone out there doesn't believe it's random, answer me this.
Why would ANet spend the time required to create some sort of intricate patterned formula, which could be cracked and lead to a huge exploit, when it would be infinatly easier to build a random number generator?

Quote:

Originally Posted by xarchitect

And it seems from the screenshot that either someone figured out the formula or just bought a lot of tickets.

Without a screenie of the title track bars I would be inclined to say they bought the tickets.

xarchitect · Jul 02, 2006, 01:46 AM // 01:46

Maybe ANet is working for the government and is looking for secret code crackers. Only a math genius can determine the pattern and they will find that person by looking for someone who attained the lucky 4th tier title, since you could only get that high by knowing where they winning number was going to be. I always suspected there had to be a government conspiracy involved with this game...

Anyway, I spent time noting where the numbers were landing. I put it out there to see if anyone could make use of it. Wishful thinking more than anything.

Leighwyn · Jul 02, 2006, 01:48 AM // 01:48

Go look for the pattern, then report back before you take a power drill to your temple kthx.

There is not predictible pattern because I'm sure they used a pseudorandom generator with continually varying seed value. It's too bad they didn't make the ring games as consistent as, say, getting banished by shiro

fRag_Doll · Jul 02, 2006, 01:52 AM // 01:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by xarchitect

Maybe ANet is working for the government and is looking for secret code crackers. Only a math genius can determine the pattern and they will find that person by looking for someone who attained the lucky 4th tier title, since you could only get that high by knowing where they winning number was going to be. I always suspected there had to be a government conspiracy involved with this game...

I think you could be onto somthing there...

zerulus · Jul 02, 2006, 01:55 AM // 01:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by fRag_Doll

Isn't that somthing of an oxymoron? Any predictive formula for a random number generator would have to be based on probability (odds).

If anyone out there doesn't believe it's random, answer me this.
Why would ANet spend the time required to create some sort of intricate patterned formula, which could be cracked and lead to a huge exploit, when it would be infinatly easier to build a random number generator?

Without a screenie of the title track bars I would be inclined to say they bought the tickets.

A computer can't randomly select something, it follows an algorithm. Although it might appear random to you, it really isn't.

lishi · Jul 02, 2006, 02:58 AM // 02:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by zerulus

A computer can't randomly select something, it follows an algorithm. Although it might appear random to you, it really isn't.

the computer simulate the randomless buy using some math formula who given a input value give a sequence of pseudo random number.

knowing the math formula and the starting value you might able to get the pattern.

but is almost impossible(aka the probability are inferior to you get hit by a meteor while your sister win the national lottery while the president is eating chips.) to know the patter without the starting value.